It’s the driest February in the Bay Area in 156 years.
Federal officials say nearly a quarter of California is now under drought conditions. But as the unusually parched, hot month came to a close in Marin County, the Marin Municipal Water District reported Friday that its seven reservoirs are at 92.8% of capacity, down just about 2% from the start of the month. That total equals 104.46% of the average water storage for late February.
“In terms of our water supply, we look at our collective reservoir storage numbers, and our storage levels are still looking good at about 93% of capacity, which is above the average for this period,” said Jeanne Mariani-Belding, spokeswoman for the water district.
“But with the warmer weather ahead, it’s important to remember to use water wisely and to adjust irrigation systems to use only what you need,” she said. “Conserving water is one of our most effective tools in successfully navigating these dry periods, and (it) helps set the right course in sustainably managing our water resources.”
Latest Drought Monitor updated this week. #DryFebruary #CAwx pic.twitter.com/WWzA8bThbk
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) February 28, 2020
If the month ends without a drop of rain, as is forecast, it will be the first time since 1864 — when the Civil War was raging and covered wagons roamed the American West — that San Francisco had no measurable rain in February, and very little rain in January, historically the two wettest months of the year.
And the news in the Sierra Nevada is just as grim. On Thursday, the snowpack, the source of one-third of California’s water supply, was 46% of its historical average, down from 92% on New Year’s Day, with no precipitation falling this month over key Sierra Nevada watersheds for the first time since records began in 1921.
When will it really rain next? Not until mid-March at the earliest, forecasters say.
“It’s likely that this year we will not make up for the lack of rain,” said Anna Schneider, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, adding that the rainfall totals for the water year will likely sit well below par.
Altogether, 23.3% of the state is in “moderate drought” conditions — up from 9.5% last week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly report issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
That’s the most of any week in 13 months. Another 46.4% of California is now classified as “abnormally dry,” including Marin County.
Sunny, dry weather, with temperatures in the 60s, is forecast for the weekend across Marin, with temperatures jumping about 5 degrees on Monday for about a week. Apart from a slight chance of sprinkles on Sunday, the next time significant showers are possible in the Bay Area is between March 9-11, when the long-range forecast shows a chance of rain, according to the weather service.
Before you are soon inundated with dry February rainfall statistics. CPC 8 to 14 day outlooks continue to show rainfall around the second week of March. Graphics show a slight to moderate risk of heavy precipitation across the Central Coast and Bay Area.#CAwx pic.twitter.com/PFrmGAi3Fd
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) February 28, 2020
The culprit for the dry weather? A large ridge of high-pressure air, similar to the one that created much of the state’s 2012-2017 drought, that has set up off the West Coast and deflected storms to Washington state, southern Canada and Mexico that otherwise were on target to hit California.
Although Marin, is experiencing “abnormally dry” conditions with a significant chunk of the state in the “moderate drought” category, Schneider said, “I wouldn’t panic just yet.”
Because of wet winters last year and in 2018, the water levels in major reservoirs around the state are at near or above average, much like those in Marin County, Schneider said.
On Thursday, Shasta Lake, the state’s largest reservoir, was 78% full — 107% of its historic average for late February. Lake Oroville was 64% full, or 92% of its historic average. And San Luis Reservoir near Los Banos was 70% full, or 83% of average for this time of year.
Plus, “a drought develops gradually over a longer period of time,” Schneider said.
That’s thanks to reservoir and groundwater storage, she said. It typically takes at least two years of dry winters for a major drought to emerge in California.
A wet winter next year could return conditions to normal. But the lack of rain this year is generating concerns about increased fire risk this summer and increasing the chances of major blazes, due to lower moisture levels in grasses, brush and trees.
“No matter what the conditions are, it’s always a good idea to conserve water,” Schneider said.
The Bay Area News Group contributed to this report.
